Florida GOP Voters Oppose 2026 Cannabis Legalization Initiative, Casting Uncertainty on Ballot Measure’s Success

New Poll Reveals Majority of Republican Voters Remain Unswayed by Legalization Efforts Despite Industry Momentum

A new poll by the University of North Florida (UNF) shows that a majority of registered Republican voters in Florida oppose a proposed ballot initiative to legalize adult-use marijuana in the state. The findings cast a shadow of doubt over the prospects of the Smart & Safe Florida campaign’s renewed effort to place the measure on the 2026 ballot.

According to the survey, just 40 percent of Florida GOP voters support the cannabis legalization proposal, while 58 percent oppose it. The initiative would allow adults 21 and over to possess and purchase marijuana for personal use. Despite support from some high-profile figures, the latest data suggests a significant hurdle remains in rallying enough support to meet Florida’s steep 60 percent constitutional amendment threshold.

Cannabis Campaign Pushes Forward with Ballot Signatures Amid Resistance

The Smart & Safe Florida campaign has already begun collecting signatures and, according to state officials, has surpassed 70 percent of the required total to qualify the measure for a 2026 vote. To earn a place on the ballot, the campaign must gather 880,062 valid signatures from registered voters and meet distribution requirements across at least half of Florida’s 28 congressional districts.

While it’s made solid progress in some areas, it has met the full threshold in only three districts so far, with several others close behind. In July, the initiative cleared a crucial step when the state confirmed it had triggered both fiscal and judicial review processes.

Opposition from DeSantis and GOP May Stifle Momentum Despite Trump’s Past Support

Governor Ron DeSantis (R) remains a vocal opponent of cannabis legalization, despite former President Donald Trump expressing support for the 2024 version of the initiative during his campaign. DeSantis has argued the measure would serve only corporate interests and lead to widespread public consumption. He also predicts that the Florida Supreme Court will ultimately block the 2026 version from reaching the ballot, citing language issues and concerns over amending the state constitution.

The 2024 version of the measure which was also spearheaded by Smart & Safe Florida and heavily bankrolled by cannabis giant Trulieve earned a majority of votes but fell short of the 60 percent needed for constitutional amendments in Florida.

Polling Highlights GOP Divide Between General Legalization Support and Specific Ballot Measures

In a revealing twist, the same polling center UNF found earlier this year that 55 percent of Republican voters in Florida supported the general idea of allowing adults to possess small amounts of marijuana for personal use. The shift in opinion when the question is framed as a specific ballot vote shows the complexity of public sentiment and perhaps the impact of recent political campaigns against legalization.

“It’s interesting that they tend to support legalization in a broad sense, but when put to a yes or no vote, it doesn’t make the cut,” said Michael Binder, a UNF political science professor.

Binder speculated that the last-minute push against Amendment 3 during the 2024 election cycle could have left lingering doubts among Republican voters.

Revised Ballot Language Attempts to Address Concerns Raised in 2024

The revised 2026 initiative includes clearer language around issues that opponents previously cited. It now explicitly prohibits smoking and vaping marijuana in public places and requires legislative oversight for regulating the time, place, and manner of public use. These changes aim to ease concerns about public consumption and perceived lack of regulation.

Still, it remains to be seen whether these clarifications will win over skeptical voters. The 2026 proposal’s future hinges not only on signature gathering but on broader voter sentiment, especially among independents and Democrats, who will need to vote overwhelmingly in favor of the measure to overcome Republican resistance.

Conflicting Polls Show Mixed Signals About Statewide Support

While the new UNF poll highlights resistance within the Republican voter base, earlier polling from February showed that 67 percent of Floridians overall supported marijuana legalization—including 82 percent of Democrats, 66 percent of independents, and 55 percent of Republicans.

In contrast, a more recent survey from the Florida Chamber of Commerce—an outspoken opponent of the initiative—found that while a majority (53 percent) supported legalization, it was not enough to meet the 60 percent threshold.

These conflicting numbers suggest that success will depend heavily on turnout, messaging, and the ability of legalization advocates to mobilize support from non-Republican voters while attempting to flip some Republican sentiment.

Legal and Political Headwinds Could Complicate Future Initiative Campaigns

Beyond public opinion, the initiative faces structural challenges. Governor DeSantis recently signed legislation that places stricter rules on citizen-led ballot initiatives, potentially making it harder for campaigns like Smart & Safe Florida to succeed. The new law includes restrictions on paid signature gathering and reporting requirements that increase operational burdens.

Legal experts and cannabis advocates fear the law could suppress future efforts to let voters decide on issues such as marijuana legalization or reproductive rights.

Industry and Advocacy Groups Remain Optimistic Amid Setbacks

Despite the headwinds, the cannabis industry and supporters of the initiative remain hopeful. Trulieve, which helped fund the previous campaign, is expected to continue backing the effort, along with other industry stakeholders who believe that public sentiment will shift more favorably as the 2026 election approaches.

The campaign is also banking on demographic changes and growing national support for legalization to influence the Florida electorate.

A Pivotal Test for Cannabis Reform in the Sunshine State

The Smart & Safe Florida initiative represents the cannabis movement’s second major attempt to legalize adult-use marijuana in one of the nation’s largest and most politically influential states. Its success would have wide-reaching implications for the cannabis industry and for legalization efforts nationwide.

However, with polling indicating significant GOP opposition, tight constitutional requirements, and political opposition from powerful state leaders, the road to legalization in Florida remains steep. For now, the cannabis community watches closely as the campaign moves into its next phase one that may define the trajectory of cannabis reform in the southeastern U.S. for years to come.