Legal Cannabis Undercutting the Illicit Market in Germany Marks a Turning Point for the Global Cannabis Industry

Germany’s Cannabis Market Emerges as a Global Game-Changer Amid Unprecedented Growth

Germany, the largest economy in Europe, is witnessing one of the most dynamic transformations in the global cannabis industry. With the implementation of the German Cannabis Act (CanG) in April 2024, the country’s legal cannabis framework has set the stage for a seismic shift in how cannabis is regulated, accessed, and priced—not just in Germany, but worldwide.

The German model is reshaping the international landscape by offering legal cannabis at prices significantly lower than the illicit market. This rare dynamic is helping Germany not only expand its domestic medical cannabis program but also spark widespread change across the European Union and global markets.

Medical Cannabis Patient Enrollment in Germany Skyrockets Post-Legalization Reform

When Germany enacted the CanG in April 2024, the focus remained squarely on expanding medical access. A key component of the law reclassified cannabis from a narcotic to a recognized medicine. This pivotal change eliminated numerous bureaucratic obstacles and enabled medical professionals across the country to prescribe cannabis with far greater ease.

The results were immediate and profound. In April 2024, there were roughly 250,000 registered cannabis patients in Germany. By May 2025, this number had soared to nearly 900,000. This explosive growth represents nearly a fourfold increase in just over a year, positioning Germany to potentially overtake Florida as the world’s largest medical cannabis market by patient count.

By the end of 2025, industry projections indicate that Germany may host up to 1.5 million medical cannabis patients—equivalent to about 2% of the total population. While Florida’s 915,000 patients represent about 4% of the state’s population, Germany’s consistent growth trend suggests it may soon lead the global market in sheer numbers.

Legal Sales Surge as Market Value in Germany Crosses the €1 Billion Threshold

This rapid expansion in patient registration has had a direct impact on Germany’s cannabis sales. In 2024, the market generated an estimated €450 million in medical cannabis revenue. In 2025, that number is expected to more than double, with forecasts predicting over €1 billion in sales.

Such figures signal a robust and scalable market, propelled by smart regulatory design and high patient demand. If current growth rates persist, Germany could emerge as a €4 billion market by the end of the decade, creating vast economic and investment opportunities across international borders.

Legal Cannabis Prices Undercutting Illicit Rates Is a Global Industry Milestone

One of the most revolutionary developments in Germany’s cannabis reform is that legal cannabis now costs less than illegal cannabis. This is a critical milestone, as many legal cannabis programs—especially in the United States—have failed to suppress illicit trade due to high taxes, complex regulations, and expensive infrastructure requirements.

In Germany, legal cannabis flower currently sells for €4–7 per gram, while illicit cannabis is priced around €10 per gram. Several key factors contribute to this reversal:

• Low taxation: Unlike U.S. markets, Germany avoids heavy excise taxes on cannabis, keeping prices competitive.
• Pharmacy distribution model: Cannabis is dispensed through existing medical pharmacies, eliminating the need for standalone dispensary networks.
• Government healthcare support: Cannabis as medicine is often covered or subsidized, reducing direct costs to patients.
  

This pricing structure has been instrumental in accelerating patient sign-ups and undermining the illicit market. However, to sustain this dominance, the legal market will need to diversify its product offerings beyond flower and extracts, particularly since edibles and other popular forms remain banned.

Global Cannabis Supply Chain Anchored by Germany’s Growing Demand

Germany’s cannabis demand is also reshaping international supply chains. As of May 2025, about half of the country’s legal cannabis is imported from Canada. Canadian exports to Germany have surged, rising from 17 metric tons in 2023 to an estimated 50 metric tons in 2025.

Germany’s domestic cultivation remains limited, primarily due to high energy and labor costs. Yet, this has opened the door for global suppliers to enter the market. Countries like Canada are leveraging Germany’s growth to expand their international footprint, thereby strengthening the global cannabis economy and enhancing its legitimacy on the world stage.

Political Shifts in Germany Unlikely to Disrupt Cannabis Law Despite Coalition Change

Germany’s February 2025 federal elections resulted in a new coalition government composed of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Christian Social Union (CSU), and Social Democratic Party (SPD). While some political figures within the coalition have voiced concerns over CanG, there is no significant momentum to reverse or repeal the legislation.

Instead, analysts expect only modest regulatory adjustments, such as tweaks to personal possession limits or telemedicine rules. This anticipated policy stability ensures a relatively predictable environment for businesses and investors over the next few years.

U.S. and Canadian Cannabis Companies Position Themselves for German Market Entry

The opportunities presented by the German market have not gone unnoticed by North American operators. Several large U.S. multistate operators (MSOs) are actively exploring or expanding their presence in Germany. Curaleaf, for instance, has acquired a majority stake in Four 20 Pharma, one of Germany’s leading cannabis companies.

Cresco Labs is also signaling strong interest. At the April 2025 International Cannabis Business Conference (ICBC) in Berlin, Cresco outlined its intentions to explore market entry strategies and long-term investment in Germany.

Canadian operators are likewise moving assertively. Tilray and Aurora hold two of the only three licenses to cultivate cannabis domestically in Germany. Organigram has not only signed a supply agreement with Germany’s Sanity Group but has also provided substantial capital investment to fuel its growth.

Retail-focused companies such as High Tide and premium cannabis producers like Rubicon Organics are actively evaluating German market potential, seeking to capture early mover advantages in this rapidly expanding ecosystem.

Germany’s Model Could Set the Standard for International Cannabis Reform

Germany’s unique blend of affordability, access, and international engagement is making it a model for cannabis policy worldwide. By aligning patient needs with competitive pricing and streamlined logistics, Germany is building a foundation that could drive long-term success—not just at home, but across the globe.

As more countries observe the benefits of this balanced approach—rising patient counts, falling illicit activity, and thriving legal commerce—they may look to adopt similar frameworks. The ripple effects could reshape cannabis laws, healthcare integration, and trade relationships across Europe, North America, and beyond.

Germany is at the forefront of a global cannabis transformation. With legal cannabis undercutting illicit pricing, surging patient numbers, and international suppliers rallying to meet demand, the country is laying the groundwork for a truly global cannabis industry. As nations worldwide look to Germany’s evolving model, the future of legal cannabis appears increasingly international, integrated, and economically powerful.