Thailand Poised to Recriminalize Cannabis as Industry Boom Faces Backlash and Fading Interest

Thailand, the first Asian country to experiment with cannabis decriminalization in 2022, may soon make the drug illegal again. The country’s billion-dollar cannabis industry, which flourished in the wake of legalization, is facing growing scrutiny from both the public and political leaders ahead of national elections scheduled for February 8.

According to Bloomberg News, all three parties most likely to dominate the elections have promised to impose restrictions on cannabis. The move is a response to the proliferation of thousands of cannabis shops and the industry’s failure to deliver on its economic promises. The prospect of recriminalization has left cannabis entrepreneurs, including North American investors operating in Thailand, reevaluating their strategies as profitability remains elusive.

Thailand’s Cannabis Rush Sparked by Decriminalization in 2022 and Ambitious Economic Goals

Cannabis was decriminalized in Thailand in 2022 under the leadership of then-Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is now prime minister and head of the Bhumjaithai Party. Anutin promoted decriminalization as a way to stimulate the economy in Thailand’s rural agricultural regions and attract investment to underdeveloped areas.

However, the lack of clear regulations or consistent enforcement created a chaotic environment. An estimated 18,000 cannabis sellers emerged nationwide, many opening storefronts in rapid succession. The sudden boom generated public concern over market saturation, accessibility to minors, and the lack of quality control.

A 2024 survey indicated that a majority of Thai respondents supported reimposing criminal penalties for recreational cannabis use, reflecting growing public unease with the rapid proliferation of cannabis outlets.

Public Health Measures Already Began to Restrict Cannabis Use and Advertising

Thailand’s government moved to curb the cannabis frenzy in June 2024, when the Public Health Ministry banned cannabis advertising and restricted vending machine sales. These measures were part of a broader effort to regulate the market and limit exposure to minors.

Despite these early interventions, public sentiment has increasingly favored returning cannabis to Thailand’s list of banned substances, setting the stage for further policy reversals depending on the results of the February elections.

Medical Only Cannabis Could Survive if Bhumjaithai Party Retains Power

Though recreational use may be curtailed, a regulated medical cannabis industry could persist under a prescription-based model. Current rules require producers and sellers to obtain permits, and patients must provide medical documentation to access cannabis legally.

For Thailand to become a significant player in the international medical cannabis market, additional regulations—such as clear standards for import and export—would be necessary. A spokesperson for the Bhumjaithai Party told Bloomberg that Prime Minister Anutin “never intended the drug to be used recreationally,” suggesting that a medical-focused framework could remain intact if his party retains power.

Political Consensus Favors Recriminalization, but Cannabis Is Not a Major Electoral Issue

Polling ahead of the February elections shows the People’s Party as the favorite to secure a plurality of parliamentary seats. Both the People’s Party and Pheu Thai, another leading party, have expressed support for returning cannabis to the country’s list of banned substances.

However, cannabis is not a driving political issue. Nuttanan Wichitaksorn, a visiting research adviser at the Thailand Development Research Institute, told Bloomberg that interest in cannabis has waned among voters. “It is not a hot issue anymore,” he said. “Now they see other things that are more exciting and get more votes.”

Economic Reality: Most Cannabis Businesses in Thailand Remain Unprofitable

Industry data supports this shift in public perception. According to Wichitaksorn, only about 25% of the 177 cannabis companies surveyed in 2024 were profitable. Many entrepreneurs and investors who initially flocked to Thailand for its decriminalized market are now grappling with low margins, regulatory uncertainty, and declining consumer interest.

Some North American operators with investments in Thailand are reportedly considering their next steps, weighing whether to exit the market or pivot to medical-only operations in anticipation of stricter legal controls.

Thailand’s Cannabis Experiment Shows Limits of Rapid Market Liberalization

The Thai experience illustrates both the opportunities and risks of liberalizing cannabis too quickly without robust regulatory frameworks. While decriminalization initially created a booming industry, unregulated growth, market saturation, and public backlash have prompted political leaders to reconsider the approach.

If recriminalization occurs, Thailand may transition toward a regulated, medical-focused cannabis sector, but the country’s brief flirtation with recreational legalization serves as a cautionary tale for other nations in Asia considering similar reforms.

Thai Cannabis Market Faces Uncertain Future as Elections Approach

As February elections near, Thailand’s billion-dollar cannabis market faces a turning point. While medical cannabis may survive under a tightly regulated framework, the recreational market that emerged in 2022 is likely to be curtailed. Entrepreneurs and investors must navigate a landscape shaped by regulatory uncertainty, public sentiment, and political priorities reminding stakeholders that rapid industry growth does not always equate to sustainable profitability.