Will 2024 Be the Year Cannabis Fails at the Ballot Box?

Cannabis Legalization Faces Uncertain Future in Key States Due to Ballot Restrictions

Cannabis legalization has made strides across the United States, largely due to state ballot initiatives allowing citizens to directly vote on changes in cannabis policy. However, this year’s ballot could mark a turning point as cannabis legalization faces significant headwinds in several conservative states. With only 26 states allowing citizen-led initiatives, the number of states where cannabis can be legalized via direct vote is dwindling, presenting challenges for cannabis advocates. On Tuesday, voters in Florida, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska will decide on various cannabis measures, but predictions suggest that success is far from guaranteed.

The Limits of Citizen-Led Ballot Initiatives

Citizen-led ballot initiatives have been crucial to advancing cannabis legalization, particularly in states where legislative action has been slow. These initiatives empower voters to bypass state legislatures and place issues directly on the ballot. However, only 26 states have systems that permit citizen-initiated ballot measures, and many states with these mechanisms, like Colorado and California, have already legalized cannabis. This shrinking pool of states where voters can enact cannabis policy directly means that legalization may face new challenges as the focus shifts to more conservative states.

For states without citizen-led initiatives, legalization efforts must rely on state legislatures, which are often slower and less receptive to cannabis reform, especially in conservative regions. This legislative bottleneck has contributed to the lack of cannabis legalization in many red states, where lawmakers may be more resistant to aligning state policies with public opinion on cannabis.

Conservative States on the Ballot: The 2024 Lineup

This year’s cannabis ballot measures are primarily in conservative states that reliably lean Republican, creating unique obstacles for cannabis advocates. Florida, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska will each consider cannabis-related questions, ranging from medical cannabis legalization to expanding recreational use. These initiatives are happening in a challenging political climate, with factors such as state-specific regulations, opposition from political figures, and unfavorable polling trends.

Florida: A High-Profile Battle with High Stakes

In Florida, the campaign to legalize recreational cannabis through an amendment to the state constitution has been one of the most expensive and closely watched cannabis campaigns of the year. If successful, the measure would allow recreational cannabis to be sold legally in the state, expanding on Florida’s current medical marijuana program. However, to pass, the amendment must receive 60% approval, a higher threshold than in most states.

Recent polling has shown mixed results, with support ranging from a high of 67% to a low of 49%. The most recent polls place support right at 60%, indicating that the outcome could go either way. The situation is further complicated by high-profile political opposition from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has openly opposed the amendment. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump has expressed support, adding an unusual layer of complexity to the campaign.

This is not Florida’s first attempt to pass a cannabis measure with strong public backing. In 2014, a medical marijuana initiative narrowly missed the 60% mark, garnering 58% of the vote. It wasn’t until 2016 that Florida successfully passed a medical cannabis amendment with 71% support. Advocates are hopeful that they can replicate that victory, but the high threshold and political opposition make it a challenging campaign.

North Dakota and South Dakota: A Persistent Uphill Battle

The Dakotas have a complicated history with cannabis legalization, having faced multiple failed attempts at establishing a recreational market. This year, North Dakota’s Measure 5 and South Dakota’s Initiated Measure 29 both aim to legalize recreational cannabis, but polling data suggests that support is insufficient in both states.

In North Dakota, a recent poll conducted by the North Dakota News Service Cooperative revealed that only 45% of voters support Measure 5, while 40% oppose it and 15% remain undecided. The state previously rejected similar measures in 2018 and 2022, with 55% and 59% of voters opposed, respectively. While medical cannabis was approved in 2016 as part of a broader wave of cannabis reform, recreational legalization has proven to be a tougher sell among North Dakota voters.

South Dakota, meanwhile, made headlines in 2020 when it became the first state to pass both medical and recreational cannabis measures in a single election. However, only the medical marijuana initiative was implemented after a lawsuit backed by Governor Kristi Noem overturned the recreational measure. A second attempt at passing recreational cannabis in 2022 failed with 47% support. Current polls suggest similar opposition, with 45% of voters in favor of this year’s recreational cannabis initiative, while 50% oppose and 4% are undecided.

Nebraska: A Potential Bright Spot Amid Legal Challenges

Nebraska may be the most promising state for cannabis advocates this year, with two initiatives on the ballot: Initiative 437, which would legalize medical cannabis, and Initiative 438, which would establish a regulatory system for the industry. According to an Emerson College poll conducted in September and October, Initiative 437 has solid support, with 59% of respondents in favor.

However, the campaign faces a legal challenge that could nullify both initiatives. Opponents argue that the cannabis campaign used “fraudulent” tactics to secure a place on the ballot. A trial was ongoing as of the end of last week, putting the future of Nebraska’s initiatives in jeopardy. If the court sides with opponents, it could mean the removal of both initiatives, halting the progress toward medical cannabis legalization in Nebraska.

The Impact of Failed Cannabis Ballot Initiatives

If most or all of this year’s cannabis ballot measures fail, it could have a cooling effect on legalization momentum nationwide. A string of defeats in conservative states may signal to cannabis reform advocates that the pool of receptive states has diminished and that new strategies will be required to advance legalization in regions resistant to change.

Failing to pass these measures could also have financial repercussions for the cannabis industry, which has been eyeing these states as potential new markets. Florida, for example, with its large population and well-established tourism industry, could become a significant player in the cannabis sector if recreational use is legalized. Similarly, even smaller states like North Dakota and Nebraska represent untapped markets that could help sustain the cannabis industry’s growth. Without these new markets, the industry could face a slower expansion trajectory.

Future Paths for Cannabis Legalization: Shifting Focus to Legislatures

With fewer states remaining where citizen-led initiatives are possible, cannabis reform efforts may need to shift toward legislative advocacy, particularly in states that lack ballot initiative mechanisms. This approach has been successful in states like Illinois and New York, where legislatures have passed comprehensive cannabis legalization despite a lack of citizen initiatives. However, lobbying state legislatures can be a slow and costly process, often requiring years of persistent effort.

In conservative states, cannabis advocates may have to focus on gradual reform by emphasizing the economic and medicinal benefits of legalization. Medical cannabis, for example, may have a better chance of gaining support in states where full recreational use is seen as too extreme. Nebraska’s medical initiative, if successful, could serve as a model for similar states, demonstrating that incremental legalization can pave the way for broader reforms.

A Critical Moment for Cannabis Reform

The outcomes of this year’s ballot measures will be closely watched, as they could determine the future direction of cannabis reform in the United States. As conservative states continue to resist recreational cannabis legalization, advocates face a more challenging path ahead. Regardless of the results, the fight for cannabis legalization will likely evolve, with a shift in focus toward legislative advocacy in states without ballot initiatives. The next few years will be pivotal as the cannabis industry navigates this increasingly complex political landscape, seeking new ways to advance legalization efforts across the country.